"What has to happen to end the battle over Gaza" Victoria Times Colonist - Thomas L. Friedman

[Tom Grainger]

What has to happen to end the battle over Gaza
By Thomas L. Friedman, Special to Times ColonistJanuary 8, 2009

The fighting, death and destruction in Gaza is painful to watch. But it's all too familiar. It's the latest version of the longest-running play in the modern Middle East, which, if I were to give it a title, would be called: "Who owns this hotel? Can the Jews have a room? And shouldn't we blow up the bar and replace it with a mosque?"

That is, Gaza is a mini-version of three great struggles that have been playing out since 1948: 1) Who is going to be the regional superpower -- Egypt? Saudi Arabia? Iran? 2) Should there be a Jewish state in the Middle East and, if so, on what Palestinian terms? And 3) Who is going to dominate Arab society -- Islamists who are intolerant of other faiths and want to choke off modernity or modernists who want to embrace the future, with an Arab-Muslim face?

Let's look at each.

Who owns this hotel? The struggle for hegemony over the modern Arab world is as old as Nasser's Egypt. But what is new today is that non-Arab Iran is now making a bid for primacy -- challenging Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran has deftly used military aid to both Hamas and Hezbollah to create a rocket-armed force on Israel's northern and western borders. This enables Tehran to stop and start the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at will and to paint itself as the true protector of the Palestinians, as opposed to the weak Arab regimes.

"The Gaza that Israel left in 2005 was bordering Egypt. The Gaza that Israel just came back to is now bordering Iran," said Mamoun Fandy, director of Middle East programs at the International Institute of Strategic Studies. "Iran has become the ultimate confrontation state. I am not sure we can talk just about 'Arab-Israeli peace' or the 'Arab peace initiative' anymore. We may be looking at an 'Iranian initiative.' " The whole notion of Arab-Israeli peacemaking likely will have to change.

Can the Jews have a room here? Hamas rejects any recognition of Israel. By contrast, the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, has recognized Israel -- and vice versa. If you believe, as I do, that the only stable solution is a two-state one, with the Palestinians getting all of the West Bank, Gaza and Arab sectors of East Jerusalem, then you have to hope for the weakening of Hamas.

Why? Because nothing has damaged Palestinians more than the Hamas death-cult strategy of turning Palestinian youths into suicide bombers. Because nothing would set back a peace deal more than if Hamas' call to replace Israel with an Islamic state became the Palestinian negotiating position. And because Hamas' attacks on towns in southern Israel are destroying a two-state solution, even more than Israel's disastrous and reckless West Bank settlements.

Israel has proved that it can and will uproot settlements, as it did in Gaza. Hamas' rocket attacks pose an irreversible threat. They say to Israel: "From Gaza, we can hit southern Israel. If we get the West Bank, we can rocket, and thereby close, Israel's international airport -- anytime, any day, from now to eternity." How many Israelis will risk giving up the West Bank, given this new threat?

Shouldn't we blow up the bar and replace it with a mosque? Hamas' overthrow of the more secular Fatah organization in Gaza in 2007 is part of a region-wide civil war between Islamists and modernists. In the week that Israel has been slicing through Gaza, Islamist suicide bombers have killed almost 100 Iraqis -- first, tribal sheiks in Yusufiya, who were working on reconciliation between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, and, second, mostly women and children gathered at a Shiite shrine. These unprovoked mass murders have not stirred a single protest in Europe or the Middle East.

Gaza today is basically ground zero for all three of these struggles, said Martin Indyk, the former Clinton administration's Middle East adviser. "This tiny little piece of land, Gaza, has the potential to blow all of these issues wide open and present a huge problem for Barack Obama on Day 1."

Obama's great potential for America, noted Indyk, is also a great threat to Islamist radicals -- because his narrative holds tremendous appeal for Arabs. For eight years Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda have been surfing on a wave of anti-U.S. anger generated by George W. Bush. And that wave has greatly expanded their base.

No doubt, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are hoping that they can use the Gaza conflict to turn Obama into Bush. They know Barack Hussein Obama must be (am)Bushed -- to keep America and its Arab allies on the defensive. Obama has to keep his eye on the prize.

His goal has to be a settlement in Gaza that eliminates the threat of Hamas rockets and opens Gaza economically to the world, under credible international supervision. That's what will serve U.S. interests, moderate the three great struggles and earn him respect.

Thomas L. Friedman wrote The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the 21st Century.

© Copyright (c) The Victoria Times Colonist

Very interesting observations from a long time Middle East reporter. The "Play" title sums things up very pithily and hits the root dysfunction . The politicians & quartet still want dance around in the two state solution and I myself see a better long term solution with the "Prince of Peace" such as with the Evangelical Arabs and Messianic Jews building connections together in Israel.

[VDB]

Re: "Evangelical Arabs and Messianic Jews building connections together in Israel."

Yes. True opportunities and hope exists, as always. And we should pray for such. And yet, true danger and room for skepticism also exists, as always. Here is my concern (and please pardon my run-on sentences, it is late):

Following his appointment of the brilliant Democratic politician and former Clinton Chief of Staff Leon Panetta as Director of the CIA - an appointment of a man with no Intelligence experience during a time of two wars and the emerging two-front conflict between the two proxies of the Iranian empire and Israel (no coincidence in timing just before the inauguration, even predicted by Joe Biden during the campaign - "He will be tested during the first six months."), any roll-backs to the Bush administration's domestic policies against terrorist attacks - e.g. Guantanamo, The Patriot Act, etc. - will present a major political risk for the Obama administration. If there is even one terror attack on US soil - even the mainstream media will turn to the questions that will arise and Monday-morning-quarterback the decision to roll back previous policy (suddenly, everyone will claim that they were for them all along) and put into place a 70 year old politician as CIA chief. If the casualties are large - say in the thousands - the political pressure for a dramatic response will be so great, the President may well respond in a dramatic military way - say in Pakistan. This was telegraphed to us months ago. Already, now, before the inauguration, VP-elect Joe Biden is visiting Pakistan. This is wise, of course, but in context, we can also surmise what could also be going on in the minds of our enemies as they observe this new threat - for Obama does present a threat to the terrorists as he counters their long-held and fairly successful narrative in their parts of the world.

In our mindset, with our mental models, we are tempted to assume the forces of terror in the ME and Asia - as well as their cells throughout the world - would want to avoid such a blow back. In fact, it is likely the opposite. There are forces that wish such a confrontation. And thus my concern. I believe there are forces that will see Obama's draw down of the war on terror as an opportunity to strike again knowing full well that Obama would then have this choice: either continue on with a discredited and unpopular administration for the remainder of his one term Presidency, or escalate the war on terror into a world war - Afghanistan , Pakistan, perhaps India, and yes, Iran and its surrogates in Lebanon and Gaza - thus Israel and probably the entire Middle East.

This is - I believe - the opportunity and the danger before us - the crisis we face. Everything - even tiny little Gaza - is part of a system and one part affect the others. We live in dangerous times and we are called to prayer, critical thinking, and responsible citizenship. We should all be praying for our President and for our next President during these times, especially. And Tom, I suspect the prayers of Canadians would be a good thing, too.

[VDB]

And, Tom, we "Americans" should be praying for your Canadian government leaders during these times as well. And for other world leaders. This is truly a global crisis in the making.